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Climate warming in recent decades has negatively impacted forest health in the western United States. Here, we report on potential early warning signals (EWS) for drought‐related mortality derived from measurements of tree‐ring growth (ring width index; RWI) and carbon isotope discrimination (∆¹³C), primarily focused on ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa). Sampling was conducted in the southern Sierra Nevada Mountains, near the epicenter of drought severity and mortality associated with the 2012–2015 California drought and concurrent outbreak of western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis). At this site, we found that widespread mortality was presaged by five decades of increasing sensitivity (i.e., increased explained variation) of both tree growth and ∆¹³C to Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). We hypothesized that increasing sensitivity of tree growth and ∆¹³C to hydroclimate constitute EWS that indicate an increased likelihood of widespread forest mortality caused by direct and indirect effects of drought. We then tested these EWS in additional ponderosa pine‐dominated forests that experienced varying mortality rates associated with the same California drought event. In general, drier sites showed increasing sensitivity of RWI to PDSI over the last century, as well as higher mortality following the California drought event compared to wetter sites. Two sites displayed evidence that thinning or fire events that reduced stand basal area effectively reversed the trend of increasing hydroclimate sensitivity. These comparisons indicate that reducing competition for soil water and/or decreasing bark beetle host tree density via forest management—particularly in drier regions—may buffer these forests against drought stress and associated mortality risk. EWS such as these could provide land managers more time to mitigate the extent or severity of forest mortality in advance of droughts. Substantial efforts at deploying additional dendrochronological research in concert with remote sensing and forest modeling will aid in forecasting of forest responses to continued climate warming.

Chromosomal rearrangement can be an important mechanism driving population differentiation and incipient speciation. In the mountain pine beetle (MPB,Dendroctonus ponderosae), deletions on the Y chromosome that are polymorphic among populations are associated with reproductive incompatibility. Here, we usedRADsequencing across the entireMPBrange in western North America to reveal the extent of the phylogeographic differences between Y haplotypes compared to autosomal and X‐linked loci. Clustering and geneflow analyses revealed three distinct Y haplogroups geographically positioned within and on either side of the Great Basin Desert. Despite close geographic proximity between populations on the boundaries of each Y haplogroup, there was extremely low Y haplogroup mixing among populations, and gene flow on the autosomes was reduced across Y haplogroup boundaries. These results are consistent with a previous study suggesting that independent degradation of a recently evolved neo‐Y chromosome in previously isolated populations causes male sterility or inviability among Y haplotype lineages. Phylogeographic results supported historic contraction ofMPBinto three separate Pleistocene glacial refugia followed by postglacial range expansion and secondary contact. Distinct sets ofSNPs were statistically associated with environmental data among the most genetically distinct sets of geographic populations. This finding suggests that the process of adaptation to local climatic conditions is influenced by population genetic structure, with evidence for largely independent evolution in the most genetically isolated Y haplogroup.